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  • About
  • Knowledge Centre
    • Economic Growth and the Business Cycle
    • Monetary Policy and Inflation
    • Taxes and Government Spending
    • Trade and Balance of Payments
    • Financial Markets
  • FX Forecasts
  • Services
  • Forecasting Tools
  • Analysis

Daily Archives: June 5, 2020

Silver To Shine During Inflationary Equity Bear Market

BlogBy Stuart AllsoppJune 5, 2020Leave a comment

The U.S. economy is transitioning from deflation to stagflation which should see the SP500 fall while commodities and precious metals rally as has typically been the case. Equity bear markets tend to be associated with rising inflation which we believe reflects the lagged impact of prior reckless monetary and fiscal policies. The more the Fed…

Inflation Expectations Detached From Reality

BlogBy Stuart AllsoppJune 5, 2020Leave a comment

Inflation break-evens continue to price in a low long-term inflation outlook the likes of which we have not seen since the Great Depression despite surging money supply growth. We would not be surprised to see inflation head into the high-single digits towards the second half of the decade as investors balk at the prospect of…

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