Value-Growth Reversal Potential Rising

The prospects for a long-overdue reversal in U.S. value stocks relative to growth stocks are rising rapidly as the macroeconomic picture and valuation divergence point to significant value stock outperformance. While declining real yields have benefitted growth stocks in recent months, a reversal in the value-growth performance does not require a rise in real yields.…

Euro Recovery Has Further To Run

The euro continues to follow the appreciatory path implied by the recovery in real yield spreads between Germany and the U.S. Together with the bullish shift in speculative sentiment, this suggests the currency is priced for ~15% appreciation over the next 3 months. With this in mind, we remain bullish on the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust…

SLV: Key Resistance In The Crosshairs

After breaking above short-term down trendline resistance last week, silver looks set for run at key neckline resistance going back to 2014, above which would target the $20 level. The technical picture for silver chimes with the move higher we have seen across industrial metals prices, with copper prices trending particularly strongly, smashing above short-term…

SLV: Bull Market Material

Silver has gained 25% since we put out our bullish case back in March, and remains undervalued relative to its historical drivers. Our short-term fair value model for silver suggests the metal should be trading over 20% above current levels. Longer term, the easy policy mix which has benefited gold through deeply negative real yields…