Inflation break-evens continue to price in a low long-term inflation outlook the likes of which we have not seen since the Great Depression despite surging money supply growth. We would not be surprised to see inflation head into the high-single digits towards the second half of the decade as investors balk at the prospect of…
We published a tectically bearish view on US bonds today on Seeking Alpha. Below are some excerpts: With the short-term downtrend giving way in recent trading, 10-year yields look set to once again recouple with their fundamental drivers and head higher. The rise in Swiss and Japanese yields to multi-month highs could be a canary…
Intro: In the short term the demand for money tends to be the major driver of inflation. In the case of developed markets, improvements in economic confidence as shown by rising stock prices tends to correlate with higher inflation as the demand to hoard cash declines. In contrast, in emerging markets improvements in economic confidence…