Seeking Safety In The Yen

The yen remains out of line with its fundamental drivers, thanks in part to a surge in yen crosses which are at risk of reversing should the risk recovery unwind. In the event of continued dollar weakness, we would expect the yen to join in with the other majors, or at least not depreciate. After…

Brazilian Assets Look Worth The Risk

The Brazilian real is trading close to valuation levels seen when the economy was saddled with external debt and faced imminent threat of default in 2000. In 2000 central bank reserves amounted to less than half of general government external debt while the current figure is over four times. The deeply undervalued currency and stable…

Silver: A Repeat Of The 2008 Bottom

We are long SLV and repeat our call for a doubling of prices over the next 12 months as outlined previously in “The Coming Stagflation And The Case For Silver”. An extreme discount to gold prices, stability in the broad commodity complex, outperformance in silver miners, and large premiums in the physical market are reminiscent of…

Dollar Shortage A Red Herring

We published a bearish view on the US Dollar today on Seeking Alpha. Below are some excerpts: The bullish dollar argument rests on the idea of a chronic shortage in the offshore eurodollar market as demand for dollars for loan and debt repayments surges. Our take is that the apparent shortage of dollars reflects the…